One year ago, the Oscars were marked by uncertainty. Wildfires had ravaged parts of greater Los Angeles and dampened the mood. How would Conan O’Brien do as host his first time out? And then there were Karla Sofía Gascón’s old tweets.
Well, things worked out pretty well, with O’Brien such a hit as host that the Academy quickly signed him up for one more round. This year there isn’t much of a controversy. People online have tried to put two of the Best Picture frontrunners, Sinners and One Battle After Another against each other, which is silly. There was some controversy surrounding Jessie Buckley and whether or not she likes cats. And Timothée Chalamet said something stupid about no one going to the opera or ballet anymore. That’s all the drama we’ve seen.
However, this year’s Oscars looks like it might offer a slew of surprises. Many of the categories are hard to predict, including some of the acting ones. And the In Memoriam segment will have so many beloved stars and filmmakers we’ve lost over the year, that it’s bound to be something special.
The 98th Oscars will be broadcast on ABC and streamed on Hulu, Disney Plus internationally.
Let’s take a look at the categories.
Live Action Short
The French short Two People Exchanging Saliva portrays a dystopian future, but I’m betting the Academy prefers the charm of A Friend of Dorothy, starring Miriam Margolyes.
Animated short
The French short Butterfly looks lika a painting come alive. Based on a true story about a Jewish swimmer in the 1936 Olympics who ended up in Auschwitz.
Documentary short
All the Empty Rooms memorializes bedrooms of children killed in school shootings in the U.S., and I believe it is the likely winner of the category.
Sound
F1 has been derided as unworthy of its Best Picture nom, but its crew won’t go home empty-handed.
Makeup and hairstyling
One of the categories that looks the most certain is this. Frankenstein will pick up the Oscar.
Visual effects
Like its predecessors, the third Avatar will be rewarded with an Oscar for its effects.
Original song
One of the year’s biggest hits has been “Golden” from the successful Netflix film Kpop Demon Hunters and there’s not a chance that it won’t win the Oscar.
Original score
Ludwig Göransson will pick up his third Oscar for his creative, genre-bending Sinners score.
Production Design
Tamara Deverell and Shan Vieau created those majestically gothic sets for Frankenstein and will win an Oscar for it.
Costume Design
… and Kate Hawley should win for those Frankenstein costumes.
international feature
Very good movies in this category. The Brazilian Secret Agent has picked up awards over the year, but the standout nominee here is Norway’s Sentimental Value by Joachim Trier. Looks like it might win, and it certainly deserves the Oscar.
Documentary feature
I find the Netflix documentary The Perfect Neighbor a tad overrated, but it’s set to win the Oscar. A better choice might have been the Danish Mr. Nobody Against Putin.
Animated feature
Sure, Zootopia 2 has been doing very well for itself, but the award should go to Kpop Demon Hunters.
Casting
This year will introduce a new category for the first time in years, one that rewards casting directors. Francine Maisler will write history as the first recipient of this award, for Sinners.
Film editing
Traditionally, the film that wins Best Picture also wins the editing Oscar. This year, Andy Jurgensen looks set to win for One Battle After Another… but if that film also wins Best Picture remains to be seen.
Cinematography
It’s a battle between Sinners and One Battle After Another also in this category, but the former might have the upper hand, with Autumn Durald Arkapaw behind the camera.
Adapted Screenplay
Paul Thomas Anderson has written many great scripts and this year he will win an Oscar for his interpretation of Thomas Pynchon’s “Vineland”.
Original screenplay
… and Ryan Coogler will win for Sinners, so it seems fair that these dueling movies share the writing categories where they can’t compete with each other.
Supporting actor
A tricky category, because different actors have won throughout the awards season. Sean Penn might win his third Oscar for One Battle After Another, but it’s a shame because the award belongs to Stellan Skarsgård and Sentimental Value.
Supporting actress
Amy Madigan delivered one of the year’s most talked-about performances as Gladys in Weapons, and she should win this.
actress
Jessie Buckley has been a reliable presence in a lot of movies now and she looks like a winner in this category for her performance in Hamnet.
Actor
For a long time, it looked like Timothée Chalamet was a shoo-in for Marty Supreme, but now the moment seems to belong to Michael B. Jordan and his performance as twins in Sinners.
Director
Paul Thomas Anderson has been one of Hollywood’s most admired writer-directors for a few decades now. The time has come to recognize him as director, for One Battle After Another.
Picture
I am genuinely uncertain which film takes home the top prize. In a way, this reminds me of when La La Land faced Moonlight. I thought it was a given that the former would win, considering how Hollywood traditionally loves a masterful musical (and one about Tinseltown, no less). But Moonlight ended up winning. Is this such a moment? Will Sinners beat the somewhat more expected One Battle After Another? I think I’ll walk into the same trap again and guess the latter prevails.